Almost there

My apologies for slacking off and not keeping an up to date tracking here, but the economy kept me busy! Finally catching my breath now, I just did a Google News search for "Great Depression" and only got 66 hits and most of them were merely historical references, like references to the memories of old-timers who grew up during the Great Depression. By my count, only 11 of those articles were comparing the recent financial crisis and recession to the Great depression. So, we're almost there in terms of the media abandoning their obsession with these comparisons.

 

I think the incrementally improving employment reports have been a major factor. We now have more people working than before the financial crisis and "Great Recession", so that's one leg of the stool that is firmly in place, but unemployment is still elevated. Until we put that vast majority of the people who lost jobs as a result of the financial crisis and recession back to work, we will still technically be in what I continue to call a "mini recession", and we will still expect to see comparisons to "The Great Depression."

 

Those 11 articles I mentioned were just within the past 24 hours. We need to see that rate fall to no more than a handful for a full month, which would be a two order of magnitude reduction. I think that will happen, but it could be another two or three years before we stop hearing about people who are only working part time or in jobs well beneath their qualifications before we get to the stage where references to "worst economic crisis since the Great Depression" ceases being an almost automatic cliché response.

 

I will continue to post to this blog on occasion, but I am going to drop my ownership of the "economicdepressionwatch.com" domain name since it really does seem like overkill at this stage. Hey, that's some measure of the progress that we have made!

 

-- Jack Krupansky

Tracking the ongoing media mania over alleged parallels to The Great Depression

I am endeavoring to track the current media mania of attempting to draw parallels between the current economic situation and the Great Depression. I am doing this by using Google News to count the total number of "news" references to the phrase "The Great Depression" in the previous 24 hours. I have been doing this for over three years now.

• 1/10/2009: 411 hits
• 1/30/2009: 319 hits
• 2/6/2009: 308 hits
• 2/25/2009: 389 hits
• 3/10/2009: 306 hits
• 3/24/2009: 285 hits
• 4/9/2009: 93 hits
• 4/28/2009: 184 hits
• 4/30/2009: 195 hits
• 5/7/2009: 184 hits
• 5/21/2009: 167 hits
• 6/5/2009: 99 hits
• 7/8/2009: 170 hits
• 7/22/2009: 177 hits
• 7/29/2009: 189 hits
• 8/14/2009: 169 hits
• 8/20/2009: 168 hits
• 8/26/2009: 168 hits
• 9/2/2009: 147 hits
• 10/13/2009: 158 hits
• 10/22/2009: 208 hits
• 10/29/2009: 246 hits
• 11/3/2009: 176 hits
• 11/17/2009: 133 hits
• 11/24/2009: 160 hits
• 12/4/2009: 205 hits
• 12/10/2009: 158 hits
• 12/23/2009: 156 hits
• 12/30/2009: 164 hits
• 1/12/2010: 151 hits
• 1/21/2010: 211 hits
• 2/11/2010: 175 hits
• 2/24/2010: 193 hits
• 3/5/2010: 169 hits
• 3/19/2010: 147 hits
• 4/2/2010: 137 hits
• 4/7/2010: 146 hits
• 4/22/2010: 185 hits
• 4/29/2010: 246 hits
• 6/4/2010: 146 hits
• 6/18/2010: 139 hits
• 7/13/2010: 183 hits
• 7/28/2010: 162 hits
• 8/17/2010: 149 hits
• 8/27/2010: 190 hits
• 9/14/2010: 196 hits
• 9/29/2010: 233 hits
• 11/4/2010: 276 hits
• 1/19/2011: 112 hits
• 3/1/2011: 119 hits
• 3/9/2011: 144 hits
• 5/11/2011: 120 hits
• 10/22/2011: 153 hits
• 11/1/2011: 149 hits
• 11/30/2011: 142 hits
• 1/20/2012: 107 hits
• 3/9/2012: 129 hits
• 4/3/2012: 214 hits
• 9/5/2012: 202 hits

Although the "mania" appears to have subsided somewhat, or at least has stabilized, the phrase "since the Great Depression" clearly resonates, at least among journalists. The recent spike seems related to the presidential election campaign with references to unemployment being at a sustained high for the longest period since the depression;

 

One possibility for the stabilization is that the term resonates enough that the media is more than happy to cling to a term that almost assures that readers will pay attention. How long will it continue to "resonate"? Maybe until the overall economy and employment are reliably rising month after month for at least six months, with unemployment declining reliably as well, and a significant portion of the eight million people put out of work by the recession are back to work. Obviously we are not there yet. As long as there is a reportable story about the economic hardships of this recession, the term will continue to be used.

 

A fair amount of the usage at this stage is not comparison directly to The Great Depression, but simply using The Great Depression as a sort of bookend as in "since the Great Depression." Still, the media is clearly getting a lot of mileage out of the term even if they are not adding much in the way of useful information or enlightenment.

 

My current belief is that the media mania over "The Great Depression" will continue until the current recovery from the recession has advanced to the point where a monthly gain of employment is no longer a calming surprise and once again becomes taken for granted. We may need to see a decline of a million or more in unemployment and an even greater gain in employment before that happens. I do not expect that to occur in the near future. It could be a year or more, especially since initial unemployment claims remain firmly elevated above typical recessionary levels.

 

Personally, I believe that even though we are into a modest recovery overall for the economy, on the labor front we are in a mini-depression. Even though employment will begin to recover and resume growth soon, the bulk of the eight million people who lost jobs due to the recession will remain jobless for several years to come. It may take five to ten years before the bulk of those people are finally back in mainstream employment. We will have a split economy, with 80% of the people doing reasonably well and 15% struggling with some combination of unemployment and under-employment in their household, including adult children, and that is besides the typical 5% or so who are typically living in poverty or near poverty even in a booming economy.

 

-- Jack Krupansky

 

Tracking the ongoing media mania over alleged parallels to The Great Depression

I am endeavoring to track the current media mania of attempting to draw parallels between the current economic situation and the Great Depression. I am doing this by using Google News to count the total number of "news" references to the phrase "The Great Depression" in the previous 24 hours. I have been doing this for over three years now.

• 1/10/2009: 411 hits
• 1/30/2009: 319 hits
• 2/6/2009: 308 hits
• 2/25/2009: 389 hits
• 3/10/2009: 306 hits
• 3/24/2009: 285 hits
• 4/9/2009: 93 hits
• 4/28/2009: 184 hits
• 4/30/2009: 195 hits
• 5/7/2009: 184 hits
• 5/21/2009: 167 hits
• 6/5/2009: 99 hits
• 7/8/2009: 170 hits
• 7/22/2009: 177 hits
• 7/29/2009: 189 hits
• 8/14/2009: 169 hits
• 8/20/2009: 168 hits
• 8/26/2009: 168 hits
• 9/2/2009: 147 hits
• 10/13/2009: 158 hits
• 10/22/2009: 208 hits
• 10/29/2009: 246 hits
• 11/3/2009: 176 hits
• 11/17/2009: 133 hits
• 11/24/2009: 160 hits
• 12/4/2009: 205 hits
• 12/10/2009: 158 hits
• 12/23/2009: 156 hits
• 12/30/2009: 164 hits
• 1/12/2010: 151 hits
• 1/21/2010: 211 hits
• 2/11/2010: 175 hits
• 2/24/2010: 193 hits
• 3/5/2010: 169 hits
• 3/19/2010: 147 hits
• 4/2/2010: 137 hits
• 4/7/2010: 146 hits
• 4/22/2010: 185 hits
• 4/29/2010: 246 hits
• 6/4/2010: 146 hits
• 6/18/2010: 139 hits
• 7/13/2010: 183 hits
• 7/28/2010: 162 hits
• 8/17/2010: 149 hits
• 8/27/2010: 190 hits
• 9/14/2010: 196 hits
• 9/29/2010: 233 hits
• 11/4/2010: 276 hits
• 1/19/2011: 112 hits
• 3/1/2011: 119 hits
• 3/9/2011: 144 hits
• 5/11/2011: 120 hits
• 10/22/2011: 153 hits
• 11/1/2011: 149 hits
• 11/30/2011: 142 hits
• 1/20/2012: 107 hits
• 3/9/2012: 129 hits
• 4/3/2012: 214 hits – or 93 if I exclude results with 1940 and census

Although the "mania" appears to have subsided somewhat, or at least has stabilized, the phrase "since the Great Depression" clearly resonates, at least among journalists. The gross number of hits popped up a bit but I think it was entirely due to the release of the 1940 census data which resulted in stories that related the 1940 census to the depression. Excluding those stories, I only saw 93 hits. That seemed lower than expected, but possibly due to journalists focusing on the 1940 census as a more "current" story.

 

One possibility for the stabilization is that the term resonates enough that the media is more than happy to cling to a term that almost assures that readers will pay attention. How long will it continue to "resonate"? Maybe until the overall economy and employment are reliably rising month after month for at least six months, with unemployment declining reliably as well, and a significant portion of the eight million people put out of work by the recession are back to work. Obviously we are not there yet. As long as there is a reportable story about the economic hardships of this recession, the term will continue to be used.

 

A fair amount of the usage at this stage is not comparison directly to The Great Depression, but simply using The Great Depression as a sort of bookend as in "since the Great Depression." Still, the media is clearly getting a lot of mileage out of the term even if they are not adding much in the way of useful information or enlightenment.

 

My current belief is that the media mania over "The Great Depression" will continue until the current recovery from the recession has advanced to the point where a monthly gain of employment is no longer a calming surprise and once again becomes taken for granted. We may need to see a decline of a million or more in unemployment and an even greater gain in employment before that happens. I do not expect that to occur in the near future. It could be a year or more, especially since initial unemployment claims remain firmly elevated above typical recessionary levels.

 

Personally, I believe that even though we are into a modest recovery overall for the economy, on the labor front we are in a mini-depression. Even though employment will begin to recover and resume growth soon, the bulk of the eight million people who lost jobs due to the recession will remain jobless for several years to come. It may take five to ten years before the bulk of those people are finally back in mainstream employment. We will have a split economy, with 80% of the people doing reasonably well and 15% struggling with some combination of unemployment and under-employment in their household, including adult children, and that is besides the typical 5% or so who are typically living in poverty or near poverty even in a booming economy.

 

-- Jack Krupansky

 

Tracking the ongoing media mania over alleged parallels to The Great Depression

I am endeavoring to track the current media mania of attempting to draw parallels between the current economic situation and the Great Depression. I am doing this by using Google News to count the total number of "news" references to the phrase "The Great Depression" in the previous 24 hours. I have been doing this for over three years now.

• 1/10/2009: 411 hits
• 1/30/2009: 319 hits
• 2/6/2009: 308 hits
• 2/25/2009: 389 hits
• 3/10/2009: 306 hits
• 3/24/2009: 285 hits
• 4/9/2009: 93 hits
• 4/28/2009: 184 hits
• 4/30/2009: 195 hits
• 5/7/2009: 184 hits
• 5/21/2009: 167 hits
• 6/5/2009: 99 hits
• 7/8/2009: 170 hits
• 7/22/2009: 177 hits
• 7/29/2009: 189 hits
• 8/14/2009: 169 hits
• 8/20/2009: 168 hits
• 8/26/2009: 168 hits
• 9/2/2009: 147 hits
• 10/13/2009: 158 hits
• 10/22/2009: 208 hits
• 10/29/2009: 246 hits
• 11/3/2009: 176 hits
• 11/17/2009: 133 hits
• 11/24/2009: 160 hits
• 12/4/2009: 205 hits
• 12/10/2009: 158 hits
• 12/23/2009: 156 hits
• 12/30/2009: 164 hits
• 1/12/2010: 151 hits
• 1/21/2010: 211 hits
• 2/11/2010: 175 hits
• 2/24/2010: 193 hits
• 3/5/2010: 169 hits
• 3/19/2010: 147 hits
• 4/2/2010: 137 hits
• 4/7/2010: 146 hits
• 4/22/2010: 185 hits
• 4/29/2010: 246 hits
• 6/4/2010: 146 hits
• 6/18/2010: 139 hits
• 7/13/2010: 183 hits
• 7/28/2010: 162 hits
• 8/17/2010: 149 hits
• 8/27/2010: 190 hits
• 9/14/2010: 196 hits
• 9/29/2010: 233 hits
• 11/4/2010: 276 hits
• 1/19/2011: 112 hits
• 3/1/2011: 119 hits
• 3/9/2011: 144 hits
• 5/11/2011: 120 hits
• 10/22/2011: 153 hits
• 11/1/2011: 149 hits
• 11/30/2011: 142 hits
• 1/20/2012: 107 hits
• 3/9/2012: 129 hits

Although the "mania" appears to have subsided somewhat, or at least has stabilized, the phrase "since the Great Depression" clearly resonates, at least among journalists.

 

One possibility for the stabilization is that the term resonates enough that the media is more than happy to cling to a term that almost assures that readers will pay attention. How long will it continue to "resonate"? Maybe until the overall economy and employment are reliably rising month after month for at least six months, with unemployment declining reliably as well, and a significant portion of the eight million people put out of work by the recession are back to work. Obviously we are not there yet. As long as there is a reportable story about the economic hardships of this recession, the term will continue to be used.

 

A fair amount of the usage at this stage is not comparison directly to The Great Depression, but simply using The Great Depression as a sort of bookend as in "since the Great Depression." Still, the media is clearly getting a lot of mileage out of the term even if they are not adding much in the way of useful information or enlightenment.

 

My current belief is that the media mania over "The Great Depression" will continue until the current recovery from the recession has advanced to the point where a monthly gain of employment is no longer a calming surprise and once again becomes taken for granted. We may need to see a decline of a million or more in unemployment and an even greater gain in employment before that happens. I do not expect that to occur in the near future. It could be a year or more, especially since initial unemployment claims remain firmly elevated above typical recessionary levels.

 

Personally, I believe that even though we are into a modest recovery overall for the economy, on the labor front we are in a mini-depression. Even though employment will begin to recover and resume growth soon, the bulk of the eight million people who lost jobs due to the recession will remain jobless for several years to come. It may take five to ten years before the bulk of those people are finally back in mainstream employment. We will have a split economy, with 80% of the people doing reasonably well and 15% struggling with some combination of unemployment and under-employment in their household, including adult children, and that is besides the typical 5% or so who are typically living in poverty or near poverty even in a booming economy.

 

-- Jack Krupansky

 

Tracking the ongoing media mania over alleged parallels to The Great Depression

I am endeavoring to track the current media mania of attempting to draw parallels between the current economic situation and the Great Depression. I am doing this by using Google News to count the total number of "news" references to the phrase "The Great Depression" in the previous 24 hours. I have been doing this for over three years now.

• 1/10/2009: 411 hits
• 1/30/2009: 319 hits
• 2/6/2009: 308 hits
• 2/25/2009: 389 hits
• 3/10/2009: 306 hits
• 3/24/2009: 285 hits
• 4/9/2009: 93 hits
• 4/28/2009: 184 hits
• 4/30/2009: 195 hits
• 5/7/2009: 184 hits
• 5/21/2009: 167 hits
• 6/5/2009: 99 hits
• 7/8/2009: 170 hits
• 7/22/2009: 177 hits
• 7/29/2009: 189 hits
• 8/14/2009: 169 hits
• 8/20/2009: 168 hits
• 8/26/2009: 168 hits
• 9/2/2009: 147 hits
• 10/13/2009: 158 hits
• 10/22/2009: 208 hits
• 10/29/2009: 246 hits
• 11/3/2009: 176 hits
• 11/17/2009: 133 hits
• 11/24/2009: 160 hits
• 12/4/2009: 205 hits
• 12/10/2009: 158 hits
• 12/23/2009: 156 hits
• 12/30/2009: 164 hits
• 1/12/2010: 151 hits
• 1/21/2010: 211 hits
• 2/11/2010: 175 hits
• 2/24/2010: 193 hits
• 3/5/2010: 169 hits
• 3/19/2010: 147 hits
• 4/2/2010: 137 hits
• 4/7/2010: 146 hits
• 4/22/2010: 185 hits
• 4/29/2010: 246 hits
• 6/4/2010: 146 hits
• 6/18/2010: 139 hits
• 7/13/2010: 183 hits
• 7/28/2010: 162 hits
• 8/17/2010: 149 hits
• 8/27/2010: 190 hits
• 9/14/2010: 196 hits
• 9/29/2010: 233 hits
• 11/4/2010: 276 hits
• 1/19/2011: 112 hits
• 3/1/2011: 119 hits
• 3/9/2011: 144 hits
• 5/11/2011: 120 hits
• 10/22/2011: 153 hits
• 11/1/2011: 149 hits
• 11/30/2011: 142 hits
• 1/20/2012: 107 hits

Although the "mania" appears to have subsided somewhat, or at least has stabilized, the phrase "since the Great Depression" clearly resonates, at least among journalists.

 

One possibility for the stabilization is that the term resonates enough that the media is more than happy to cling to a term that almost assures that readers will pay attention. How long will it continue to "resonate"? Maybe until the overall economy and employment are reliably rising month after month for at least six months, with unemployment declining reliably as well, and a significant portion of the eight million people put out of work by the recession are back to work. Obviously we are not there yet. As long as there is a reportable story about the economic hardships of this recession, the term will continue to be used.

 

A fair amount of the usage at this stage is not comparison directly to The Great Depression, but simply using The Great Depression as a sort of bookend as in "since the Great Depression." Still, the media is clearly getting a lot of mileage out of the term even if they are not adding much in the way of useful information or enlightenment.

 

My current belief is that the media mania over "The Great Depression" will continue until the current recovery from the recession has advanced to the point where a monthly gain of employment is no longer a calming surprise and once again becomes taken for granted. We may need to see a decline of a million or more in unemployment and an even greater gain in employment before that happens. I do not expect that to occur in the near future. It could be a year or more, especially since initial unemployment claims remain firmly elevated above typical recessionary levels.

 

Personally, I believe that even though we are into a modest recovery overall for the economy, on the labor front we are in a mini-depression. Even though employment will begin to recover and resume growth soon, the bulk of the eight million people who lost jobs due to the recession will remain jobless for several years to come. It may take five to ten years before the bulk of those people are finally back in mainstream employment. We will have a split economy, with 80% of the people doing reasonably well and 15% struggling with some combination of unemployment and under-employment is their household, including adult children, and that is besides the typical 5% or so who are typically living in poverty or near poverty even in a booming economy.

 

-- Jack Krupansky

 

Tracking the ongoing media mania over alleged parallels to The Great Depression

I am endeavoring to track the current media mania of attempting to draw parallels between the current economic situation and the Great Depression. I am doing this by using Google News to count the total number of "news" references to the phrase "The Great Depression" in the previous 24 hours. I have been doing this for over two years now.

• 1/10/2009: 411 hits
• 1/30/2009: 319 hits
• 2/6/2009: 308 hits
• 2/25/2009: 389 hits
• 3/10/2009: 306 hits
• 3/24/2009: 285 hits
• 4/9/2009: 93 hits
• 4/28/2009: 184 hits
• 4/30/2009: 195 hits
• 5/7/2009: 184 hits
• 5/21/2009: 167 hits
• 6/5/2009: 99 hits
• 7/8/2009: 170 hits
• 7/22/2009: 177 hits
• 7/29/2009: 189 hits
• 8/14/2009: 169 hits
• 8/20/2009: 168 hits
• 8/26/2009: 168 hits
• 9/2/2009: 147 hits
• 10/13/2009: 158 hits
• 10/22/2009: 208 hits
• 10/29/2009: 246 hits
• 11/3/2009: 176 hits
• 11/17/2009: 133 hits
• 11/24/2009: 160 hits
• 12/4/2009: 205 hits
• 12/10/2009: 158 hits
• 12/23/2009: 156 hits
• 12/30/2009: 164 hits
• 1/12/2010: 151 hits
• 1/21/2010: 211 hits
• 2/11/2010: 175 hits
• 2/24/2010: 193 hits
• 3/5/2010: 169 hits
• 3/19/2010: 147 hits
• 4/2/2010: 137 hits
• 4/7/2010: 146 hits
• 4/22/2010: 185 hits
• 4/29/2010: 246 hits
• 6/4/2010: 146 hits
• 6/18/2010: 139 hits
• 7/13/2010: 183 hits
• 7/28/2010: 162 hits
• 8/17/2010: 149 hits
• 8/27/2010: 190 hits
• 9/14/2010: 196 hits
• 9/29/2010: 233 hits
• 11/4/2010: 276 hits
• 1/19/2011: 112 hits
• 3/1/2011: 119 hits
• 3/9/2011: 144 hits
• 5/11/2011: 120 hits
• 10/22/2011: 153 hits
• 11/1/2011: 149 hits
• 11/30/2011: 142 hits

Although the "mania" appears to have subsided somewhat, or at least has stabilized, the phrase "since the Great Depression" clearly resonates, at least among journalists.

 

One possibility for the stabilization is that the term resonates enough that the media is more than happy to cling to a term that almost assures that readers will pay attention. How long will it continue to "resonate"? Maybe until the overall economy and employment are reliably rising month after month for at least six months, with unemployment declining reliably as well, and a significant portion of the eight million people put out of work by the recession are back to work. Obviously we are not there yet. As long as there is a reportable story about the economic hardships of this recession, the term will continue to be used.

 

A fair amount of the usage at this stage is not comparison directly to The Great Depression, but simply using The Great Depression as a sort of bookend as in "since the Great Depression." Still, the media is clearly getting a lot of mileage out of the term even if they are not adding much in the way of useful information or enlightenment.

 

My current belief is that the media mania over "The Great Depression" will continue until the current recovery from the recession has advanced to the point where a monthly gain of employment is no longer a calming surprise and once again becomes taken for granted. We may need to see a decline of a million or more in unemployment and an even greater gain in employment before that happens. I do not expect that to occur in the near future. It could be a year or more, especially since initial unemployment claims remain firmly elevated above typical recessionary levels.

 

Personally, I believe that even though we are into a modest recovery overall for the economy, on the labor front we are in a mini-depression. Even though employment will begin to recover and resume growth soon, the bulk of the eight million people who lost jobs due to the recession will remain jobless for several years to come. It may take five to ten years before the bulk of those people are finally back in mainstream employment. We will have a split economy, with 80% of the people doing reasonably well and 15% struggling with some combination of unemployment and under-employment is their household, including adult children, and that is besides the typical 5% or so who are typically living in poverty or near poverty even in a booming economy.

 

-- Jack Krupansky

 

Tracking the ongoing media mania over alleged parallels to The Great Depression

I am endeavoring to track the current media mania of attempting to draw parallels between the current economic situation and the Great Depression. I am doing this by using Google News to count the total number of "news" references to the phrase "The Great Depression" in the previous 24 hours. I have been doing this for over two years now.

• 1/10/2009: 411 hits
• 1/30/2009: 319 hits
• 2/6/2009: 308 hits
• 2/25/2009: 389 hits
• 3/10/2009: 306 hits
• 3/24/2009: 285 hits
• 4/9/2009: 93 hits
• 4/28/2009: 184 hits
• 4/30/2009: 195 hits
• 5/7/2009: 184 hits
• 5/21/2009: 167 hits
• 6/5/2009: 99 hits
• 7/8/2009: 170 hits
• 7/22/2009: 177 hits
• 7/29/2009: 189 hits
• 8/14/2009: 169 hits
• 8/20/2009: 168 hits
• 8/26/2009: 168 hits
• 9/2/2009: 147 hits
• 10/13/2009: 158 hits
• 10/22/2009: 208 hits
• 10/29/2009: 246 hits
• 11/3/2009: 176 hits
• 11/17/2009: 133 hits
• 11/24/2009: 160 hits
• 12/4/2009: 205 hits
• 12/10/2009: 158 hits
• 12/23/2009: 156 hits
• 12/30/2009: 164 hits
• 1/12/2010: 151 hits
• 1/21/2010: 211 hits
• 2/11/2010: 175 hits
• 2/24/2010: 193 hits
• 3/5/2010: 169 hits
• 3/19/2010: 147 hits
• 4/2/2010: 137 hits
• 4/7/2010: 146 hits
• 4/22/2010: 185 hits
• 4/29/2010: 246 hits
• 6/4/2010: 146 hits
• 6/18/2010: 139 hits
• 7/13/2010: 183 hits
• 7/28/2010: 162 hits
• 8/17/2010: 149 hits
• 8/27/2010: 190 hits
• 9/14/2010: 196 hits
• 9/29/2010: 233 hits
• 11/4/2010: 276 hits
• 1/19/2011: 112 hits
• 3/1/2011: 119 hits
• 3/9/2011: 144 hits
• 5/11/2011: 120 hits
• 10/22/2011: 153 hits
• 11/1/2011: 149 hits

Although the "mania" appears to have subsided somewhat, or at least has stabilized, the phrase "since the Great Depression" clearly resonates, at least among journalists.

 

One possibility for the stabilization is that the term resonates enough that the media is more than happy to cling to a term that almost assures that readers will pay attention. How long will it continue to "resonate"? Maybe until the overall economy and employment are reliably rising month after month for at least six months, with unemployment declining reliably as well, and a significant portion of the eight million people put out of work by the recession are back to work. Obviously we are not there yet. As long as there is a reportable story about the economic hardships of this recession, the term will continue to be used.

 

A fair amount of the usage at this stage is not comparison directly to The Great Depression, but simply using The Great Depression as a sort of bookend as in "since the Great Depression." Still, the media is clearly getting a lot of mileage out of the term even if they are not adding much in the way of useful information or enlightenment.

 

My current belief is that the media mania over "The Great Depression" will continue until the current recovery from the recession has advanced to the point where a monthly gain of employment is no longer a calming surprise and once again becomes taken for granted. We may need to see a decline of a million or more in unemployment and an even greater gain in employment before that happens. I do not expect that to occur in the near future. It could be a year or more, especially since initial unemployment claims remain firmly elevated above typical recessionary levels.

 

Personally, I believe that even though we are into a modest recovery overall for the economy, on the labor front we are in a mini-depression. Even though employment will begin to recover and resume growth soon, the bulk of the eight million people who lost jobs due to the recession will remain jobless for several years to come. It may take five to ten years before the bulk of those people are finally back in mainstream employment. We will have a split economy, with 80% of the people doing reasonably well and 15% struggling with some combination of unemployment and under-employment is their household, including adult children, and that is besides the typical 5% or so who are typically living in poverty or near poverty even in a booming economy.

 

-- Jack Krupansky